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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.88+3.46vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.81+2.52vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.19+3.34vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.37-0.59vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+2.10vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.01+0.99vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.79+0.19vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.99-1.16vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-2.81vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-0.08vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.22-4.66vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.09-2.29vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.73-0.65vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-3.25-0.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.46University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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4.52Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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6.34U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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3.41Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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7.1St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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6.99Old Dominion University1.010.1%1st Place
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7.19Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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6.84Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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6.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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9.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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6.34George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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9.71Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.35Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
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13.64SUNY Stony Brook-3.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Rice | 13.9% | 15.7% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 13.9% | 13.7% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 22.9% | 21.2% | 15.3% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 16.8% | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.6% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Carly Mraz | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 25.0% | 10.5% | 1.2% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 12.3% | 56.0% | 16.8% |
| Jada Seto | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 14.0% | 80.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.