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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.19+5.27vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.37+1.34vs Predicted
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3Fordham University0.99+3.89vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.81+0.71vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+1.21vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.22+0.33vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.79+0.21vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.88-3.49vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.01-2.11vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-0.08vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.09-1.24vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-5.01vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.73-0.65vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-3.25-0.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.27U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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3.34Georgetown University2.370.3%1st Place
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6.89Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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4.71Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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6.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.33George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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7.21Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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4.51University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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6.89Old Dominion University1.010.1%1st Place
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9.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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9.76Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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6.99St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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12.35Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
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13.63SUNY Stony Brook-3.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Farley | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 25.5% | 19.1% | 15.6% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 11.9% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Madeleine Rice | 15.0% | 15.1% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 6.5% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 16.3% | 27.4% | 12.0% | 1.2% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 17.2% | 25.9% | 10.3% | 1.1% |
| Lina Carper | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 11.2% | 57.6% | 16.6% |
| Jada Seto | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 13.3% | 80.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.