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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.88+3.47vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.37+1.29vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+3.15vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.99+2.92vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.81-0.20vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy1.19+0.43vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.22-0.99vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.79-0.59vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.01-2.11vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-2.99vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-1.12vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.09-2.24vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.73-0.66vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-3.25-0.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47University of Pennsylvania1.880.2%1st Place
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3.29Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.92Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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4.8Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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6.43U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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6.01George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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7.41Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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6.89Old Dominion University1.010.1%1st Place
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7.01St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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9.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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9.76Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.34Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
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13.63SUNY Stony Brook-3.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Rice | 15.1% | 15.2% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 24.8% | 20.7% | 16.1% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 11.4% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 16.1% | 28.0% | 11.8% | 0.9% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 17.3% | 25.2% | 11.0% | 0.9% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 5.5% | 12.3% | 55.0% | 17.3% |
| Jada Seto | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 14.4% | 80.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.