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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.81+3.68vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.19+4.15vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.37+0.37vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.01+2.89vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.79+2.58vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.88-1.41vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.22-0.98vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-1.89vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.99-2.03vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-2.95vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-1.12vs Predicted
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12Washington College-1.73+0.43vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.09-3.38vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-3.25-0.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.68Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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6.15U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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3.37Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.89Old Dominion University1.010.0%1st Place
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7.58Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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4.59University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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6.02George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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6.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.97Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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7.05St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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9.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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12.43Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
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9.62Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.64SUNY Stony Brook-3.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Ehnot | 12.8% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 24.8% | 19.4% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 9.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 14.0% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 16.4% | 28.8% | 10.2% | 1.4% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 11.2% | 58.3% | 17.0% |
| Carly Mraz | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 16.0% | 25.0% | 11.0% | 0.7% |
| Jada Seto | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 14.5% | 80.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.