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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.73+6.07vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.42+5.00vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.94+7.52vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.81+6.74vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.75+0.36vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.18vs Predicted
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7Hampton University1.47+4.78vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+2.88vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.60+3.64vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.88-1.03vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-5.03vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.19+2.14vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.82-5.13vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-6.43vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.38-9.06vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.46-2.39vs Predicted
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17Drexel University1.12-6.80vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.03-3.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.07Webb Institute1.737.5%1st Place
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7.0University of Pennsylvania2.428.2%1st Place
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10.52Fordham University1.943.4%1st Place
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10.74Old Dominion University1.812.9%1st Place
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5.36Georgetown University2.7512.3%1st Place
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6.18U. S. Naval Academy2.609.9%1st Place
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11.78Hampton University1.472.3%1st Place
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10.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.222.1%1st Place
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12.64Christopher Newport University0.601.6%1st Place
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8.97SUNY Maritime College1.884.7%1st Place
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5.97St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.9%1st Place
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14.14Washington College0.191.1%1st Place
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7.87George Washington University1.826.7%1st Place
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7.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.137.8%1st Place
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5.94Cornell University2.3812.4%1st Place
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13.61Princeton University0.461.8%1st Place
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10.2Drexel University1.123.5%1st Place
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14.57University of Virginia-0.031.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 2.7% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.3% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 6.3% |
| Lars Osell | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 9.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.9% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 18.9% | 22.7% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| JJ Klempen | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 12.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 14.6% | 18.6% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 16.2% | 30.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.