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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.81+3.57vs Predicted
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2Princeton University-0.09+7.49vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.81+4.30vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.37-0.59vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.88-0.50vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.22+0.37vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.79+0.19vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+1.71vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-1.85vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy1.19-3.68vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-4.87vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.99-5.12vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.73-0.66vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-3.25-0.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.57Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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9.49Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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7.3Old Dominion University0.810.1%1st Place
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3.41Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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4.5University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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6.37George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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7.19Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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9.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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7.15St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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6.32U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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6.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.88Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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12.34Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
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13.63SUNY Stony Brook-3.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Ehnot | 13.3% | 14.9% | 14.8% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 19.1% | 23.9% | 9.5% | 0.7% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 22.6% | 21.1% | 16.3% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 13.0% | 14.3% | 16.0% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 27.2% | 12.8% | 1.1% |
| Lily Flack | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 9.3% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 10.6% | 57.0% | 17.0% |
| Jada Seto | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 14.1% | 80.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.