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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+5.05vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.79+5.22vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.81+1.62vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.99+2.90vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.88-0.48vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+3.87vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.81+0.08vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.22-1.80vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-1.83vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.37-6.64vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy1.19-4.65vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.09-2.30vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-3.25+0.59vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.73-1.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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7.22Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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4.62Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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6.9Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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4.52University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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9.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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7.08Old Dominion University0.810.1%1st Place
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6.2George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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7.17St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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3.36Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.35U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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9.7Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.59SUNY Stony Brook-3.250.0%1st Place
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12.37Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 14.1% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 13.9% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 16.8% | 25.7% | 12.7% | 1.3% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Lily Flack | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 23.8% | 20.8% | 16.0% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 17.3% | 24.1% | 10.7% | 1.1% |
| Jada Seto | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 12.0% | 81.3% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 4.8% | 12.9% | 56.9% | 15.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.