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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.37+2.35vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.22+4.01vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.88+1.38vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.81+3.07vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91+1.77vs Predicted
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6Fordham University0.99+0.53vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.81-2.49vs Predicted
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8Princeton University-0.09+1.21vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-3.05vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy1.19-3.94vs Predicted
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11Washington College-1.73+0.83vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.79-4.68vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-1.78-1.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.35Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.01George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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4.38University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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7.07Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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6.77St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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6.53Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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4.51Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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9.21Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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5.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.06U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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11.83Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
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7.32Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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12.0SUNY Stony Brook-1.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 23.6% | 19.5% | 18.0% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 14.4% | 14.8% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Lily Flack | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 0.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 14.3% | 14.6% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 28.2% | 16.4% | 2.6% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.6% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ava Farley | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 35.0% | 43.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 4.3% | 0.5% |
| Margaret Myers-Aldous | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 6.4% | 31.0% | 52.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.