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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91+5.89vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.81+2.58vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.81+4.16vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.37-0.71vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.88-0.68vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.79+1.12vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.19-0.95vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.22-2.00vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.99-2.28vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-4.17vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.09-1.81vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-1.78-0.05vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.73-1.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.89St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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4.58Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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7.16Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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3.29Georgetown University2.370.3%1st Place
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4.32University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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7.12Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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6.05U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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6.0George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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6.72Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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5.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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9.19Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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11.95SUNY Stony Brook-1.780.0%1st Place
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11.91Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lily Flack | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 12.7% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Kelly Bates | 25.3% | 19.9% | 15.6% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 14.9% | 16.7% | 13.7% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 0.4% |
| Ava Farley | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Carly Mraz | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 26.4% | 15.6% | 3.9% |
| Margaret Myers-Aldous | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 32.6% | 48.9% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 9.0% | 36.0% | 45.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.