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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.37+2.32vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.88+2.37vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+2.95vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.19+2.16vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91+1.77vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.81-1.48vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.79+0.09vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.22-2.03vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.81-1.84vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-1.78+1.85vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.09-1.83vs Predicted
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12Washington College-1.73-0.11vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.99-6.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.32Georgetown University2.370.3%1st Place
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4.37University of Pennsylvania1.880.2%1st Place
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5.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.16U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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6.77St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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4.52Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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7.09Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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5.97George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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7.16Old Dominion University0.810.1%1st Place
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11.85SUNY Stony Brook-1.780.0%1st Place
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9.17Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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11.89Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
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6.78Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 25.4% | 18.3% | 17.5% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 15.3% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 5.9% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 5.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Lily Flack | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 14.1% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 0.3% |
| Margaret Myers-Aldous | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 6.3% | 34.5% | 47.1% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 26.1% | 15.5% | 3.9% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 8.4% | 33.5% | 47.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.