Race 11B

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kelly Bates 23.3% 21.2% 15.8% 13.1% 10.7% 6.5% 4.2% 2.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lizzie Cochran 6.3% 4.9% 7.7% 8.9% 8.1% 9.8% 10.7% 10.3% 11.0% 11.4% 8.5% 2.1% 0.3%
Lauren Ehnot 12.8% 14.5% 13.0% 12.4% 11.4% 10.2% 9.7% 7.4% 3.4% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Madeleine Rice 14.4% 14.7% 13.6% 12.9% 11.5% 9.8% 7.9% 7.3% 4.8% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Gianna Dewey 6.0% 5.1% 5.3% 8.1% 8.2% 8.5% 8.1% 11.1% 11.5% 12.4% 11.6% 3.5% 0.6%
Lily Flack 6.2% 5.7% 6.5% 7.4% 8.5% 9.9% 9.6% 10.9% 13.0% 10.8% 8.4% 2.8% 0.3%
Ava Farley 7.6% 8.7% 10.4% 8.3% 7.6% 11.0% 10.4% 9.4% 10.5% 8.2% 6.4% 1.2% 0.3%
Carly Mraz 1.6% 2.9% 2.4% 3.3% 4.0% 3.6% 5.5% 6.3% 10.2% 13.4% 28.3% 15.3% 3.2%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia 8.1% 7.0% 8.2% 8.3% 10.6% 10.5% 11.0% 10.5% 9.2% 9.1% 6.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Elizabeth Starck 8.4% 8.6% 9.6% 9.7% 10.6% 10.5% 9.9% 9.9% 8.8% 8.2% 4.3% 1.3% 0.2%
Grace Watlington 4.6% 5.8% 7.1% 6.8% 7.3% 8.4% 10.5% 11.6% 12.3% 11.6% 10.5% 3.2% 0.3%
Laurel Krause 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.8% 4.6% 7.3% 34.2% 46.5%
Margaret Myers-Aldous 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 3.4% 6.8% 34.5% 48.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.