Race 12B

maisa-women-fall-dinghy

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kelly Bates 23.6% 20.3% 14.8% 13.7% 10.1% 6.9% 5.8% 1.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Madeleine Rice 14.2% 14.6% 14.2% 14.2% 10.9% 9.4% 8.3% 6.3% 3.8% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Lauren Ehnot 12.4% 14.4% 14.4% 10.4% 12.5% 11.2% 9.4% 5.9% 5.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Lily Flack 5.5% 5.8% 5.7% 8.1% 8.5% 9.0% 9.1% 12.1% 11.6% 11.8% 9.7% 2.6% 0.5%
Ava Farley 8.2% 8.2% 8.4% 10.1% 9.2% 8.9% 10.4% 11.0% 9.0% 8.8% 6.7% 1.1% 0.0%
Gianna Dewey 5.8% 4.8% 6.7% 7.3% 9.0% 7.5% 8.0% 12.3% 12.0% 12.3% 10.6% 3.4% 0.3%
Elizabeth Starck 8.4% 9.5% 11.0% 7.7% 9.7% 10.4% 11.4% 8.9% 9.5% 8.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.1%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia 7.7% 8.0% 9.5% 8.8% 8.7% 12.0% 11.0% 11.3% 8.1% 9.6% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Lizzie Cochran 5.6% 6.7% 7.2% 7.1% 8.5% 9.5% 11.2% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 9.4% 2.4% 0.1%
Grace Watlington 5.8% 5.4% 5.4% 7.6% 7.4% 8.7% 8.5% 10.3% 12.2% 13.1% 11.5% 3.3% 0.8%
Carly Mraz 1.9% 1.8% 2.2% 4.0% 4.2% 4.9% 4.5% 6.7% 11.0% 12.4% 26.9% 15.1% 4.4%
Laurel Krause 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3% 1.7% 2.1% 3.4% 7.5% 35.0% 46.0%
Margaret Myers-Aldous 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 2.2% 2.5% 7.6% 34.8% 47.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.