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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.81+3.54vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91+4.89vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.88+1.40vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.22+2.08vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.81+1.99vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.37-2.69vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.79+0.07vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.19-1.88vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-3.08vs Predicted
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10Fordham University0.99-3.39vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.09-1.79vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-1.78-0.05vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.73-1.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.54Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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6.89St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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4.4University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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6.08George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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6.99Old Dominion University0.810.1%1st Place
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3.31Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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7.07Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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6.12U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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5.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.61Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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9.21Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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11.95SUNY Stony Brook-1.780.0%1st Place
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11.9Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Ehnot | 13.5% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lily Flack | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Madeleine Rice | 14.1% | 13.9% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 0.4% |
| Kelly Bates | 24.2% | 22.4% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Ava Farley | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 26.3% | 16.0% | 3.9% |
| Margaret Myers-Aldous | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 8.6% | 32.7% | 48.7% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 7.6% | 36.2% | 45.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.