Race 2A

cornell-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Alexander Sachs 10.7% 11.1% 12.8% 12.2% 10.7% 10.5% 9.9% 8.6% 6.4% 4.1% 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Alden Sonnenfeldt 8.2% 9.6% 10.0% 9.6% 11.5% 11.3% 10.7% 9.2% 8.7% 6.4% 2.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Patrick Kana 27.5% 22.1% 15.2% 12.9% 8.1% 7.0% 4.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Gerard Tonachel 11.3% 11.1% 12.4% 11.9% 12.1% 11.5% 9.6% 7.6% 6.9% 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Andrew Sayre 4.8% 5.5% 5.1% 7.1% 7.3% 8.2% 9.7% 10.9% 10.9% 11.0% 10.8% 6.9% 1.8% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 1.6% 1.4% 2.4% 2.6% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 6.2% 7.9% 10.1% 16.3% 22.4% 18.0% 0.0%
Samantha Gebb 5.3% 5.0% 6.0% 6.5% 8.5% 6.2% 9.3% 10.9% 10.8% 11.6% 10.8% 6.7% 2.4% 0.0%
Zachary Schippe 3.3% 6.0% 5.2% 5.5% 6.2% 7.5% 9.2% 11.0% 11.2% 12.8% 11.9% 7.8% 2.4% 0.0%
Jennifer Borshoff 12.7% 12.9% 12.5% 12.1% 11.4% 11.3% 8.5% 6.9% 6.2% 3.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Conor Cashel 10.6% 9.1% 11.8% 10.6% 10.0% 11.1% 9.6% 9.5% 6.0% 5.6% 3.9% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Andrew Murphy 2.3% 3.1% 4.3% 5.7% 5.0% 6.6% 7.7% 8.7% 11.2% 13.8% 13.9% 12.3% 5.4% 0.0%
Jarrett Scherrer 0.4% 1.4% 0.2% 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 2.9% 3.7% 5.2% 4.9% 9.6% 18.3% 48.4% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 1.6% 1.4% 2.4% 2.6% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 6.2% 7.9% 10.1% 16.3% 22.4% 18.0% 0.0%
Andrew Green 1.3% 1.7% 2.1% 1.7% 3.0% 4.0% 5.2% 5.0% 7.8% 12.3% 14.9% 20.6% 20.4% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.