Race 3A

cornell-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Patrick Kana 27.6% 21.1% 18.0% 13.2% 8.0% 5.6% 3.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jennifer Borshoff 13.5% 13.6% 13.4% 12.7% 13.3% 10.0% 9.7% 6.6% 3.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Alexander Sachs 9.6% 14.0% 12.6% 11.9% 10.8% 12.5% 11.6% 8.2% 5.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Samantha Gebb 3.8% 4.9% 5.6% 7.8% 7.2% 9.5% 10.9% 11.5% 15.0% 10.7% 8.1% 3.7% 1.3% 0.0%
Zachary Schippe 4.8% 4.7% 5.6% 7.0% 8.4% 8.9% 8.5% 11.8% 13.2% 11.5% 10.5% 3.4% 1.7% 0.0%
Alden Sonnenfeldt 9.7% 10.0% 11.0% 9.9% 12.1% 11.2% 10.7% 9.6% 7.8% 5.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Andrew Murphy 3.8% 4.1% 3.6% 4.8% 6.4% 7.0% 7.3% 10.6% 12.8% 15.4% 13.3% 7.9% 3.0% 0.0%
Gerard Tonachel 12.3% 12.3% 12.5% 12.3% 11.4% 13.0% 10.8% 7.8% 3.4% 3.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 1.3% 2.4% 2.9% 2.4% 3.5% 4.0% 4.2% 7.0% 9.5% 14.3% 19.0% 17.7% 11.8% 0.0%
Conor Cashel 10.5% 10.1% 11.4% 11.5% 11.6% 9.6% 12.0% 8.8% 7.0% 4.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Jacob Romanowsky 1.3% 2.4% 2.9% 2.4% 3.5% 4.0% 4.2% 7.0% 9.5% 14.3% 19.0% 17.7% 11.8% 0.0%
Andrew Green 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 3.5% 4.8% 5.2% 5.2% 9.0% 10.8% 14.3% 17.4% 15.8% 8.7% 0.0%
Jarrett Scherrer 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 1.8% 1.3% 2.2% 3.4% 4.8% 6.1% 8.7% 12.4% 27.0% 30.0% 0.0%
Craig Williams 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 2.0% 2.6% 4.8% 7.6% 12.3% 22.2% 43.1% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.