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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.83vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.75+3.07vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.88+5.65vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.60+1.83vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.94+4.94vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.38-0.06vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.81+3.33vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-0.76vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.73-2.34vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.82-2.49vs Predicted
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11Drexel University1.12-1.29vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.46+1.03vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.60-1.17vs Predicted
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14Hampton University1.47-2.68vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.19-1.51vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.03-2.27vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.42-10.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.9%1st Place
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5.07Georgetown University2.7514.7%1st Place
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8.65SUNY Maritime College1.884.8%1st Place
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5.83U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.5%1st Place
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9.94Fordham University1.943.5%1st Place
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5.94Cornell University2.389.0%1st Place
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10.33Old Dominion University1.813.7%1st Place
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7.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.137.9%1st Place
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6.66Webb Institute1.738.0%1st Place
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7.51George Washington University1.827.1%1st Place
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9.71Drexel University1.123.0%1st Place
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13.03Princeton University0.461.4%1st Place
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11.83Christopher Newport University0.601.8%1st Place
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11.32Hampton University1.472.2%1st Place
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13.49Washington College0.191.2%1st Place
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13.73University of Virginia-0.030.9%1st Place
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6.9University of Pennsylvania2.428.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.9% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 14.7% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 2.1% |
| Bridget Green | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 3.7% |
| JJ Klempen | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 17.6% | 19.4% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 9.8% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 6.8% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 16.4% | 24.5% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 17.6% | 30.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.