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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.57+3.71vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.43+6.30vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.98+3.93vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.72+8.47vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.44+3.71vs Predicted
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6Princeton University0.84+4.50vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.68+0.72vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.71-0.82vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+1.28vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.42-5.25vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.57-1.63vs Predicted
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12Drexel University0.47+0.16vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-3.90vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.73-3.18vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-7.82vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.20-1.90vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia-0.34-2.86vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.41-5.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.71U. S. Naval Academy2.5714.8%1st Place
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8.3Webb Institute1.435.1%1st Place
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6.93Fordham University1.988.0%1st Place
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12.47Hampton University0.721.8%1st Place
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8.71George Washington University1.445.1%1st Place
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10.5Princeton University0.843.7%1st Place
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7.72Cornell University1.687.0%1st Place
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7.18University of Pennsylvania1.717.8%1st Place
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10.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.0%1st Place
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4.75Georgetown University2.4216.5%1st Place
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9.37Old Dominion University1.575.5%1st Place
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12.16Drexel University0.472.6%1st Place
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9.1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.764.5%1st Place
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10.82Christopher Newport University0.732.9%1st Place
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7.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.3%1st Place
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14.1Washington College0.201.1%1st Place
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14.14University of Virginia-0.341.2%1st Place
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12.59SUNY Maritime College0.412.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Allgeier | 14.8% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 12.2% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Asher Green | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.8% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Honig | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| Enzo Menditto | 16.5% | 14.8% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Iain Shand | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 9.5% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Kennedy Jones | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 24.8% |
| Maxwell Penders | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 27.3% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.