Race 8A

cornell-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Gerard Tonachel 11.1% 12.3% 13.6% 12.6% 12.7% 11.8% 9.9% 7.5% 4.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Jennifer Borshoff 11.7% 14.6% 14.2% 14.2% 12.8% 10.1% 8.3% 6.9% 3.8% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Kana 28.5% 22.9% 15.7% 12.8% 9.3% 6.0% 3.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alexander Sachs 11.3% 11.4% 14.1% 12.7% 13.2% 10.7% 10.2% 7.3% 5.4% 2.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Samantha Gebb 5.2% 5.6% 5.9% 7.9% 8.1% 9.0% 10.1% 13.0% 14.2% 9.6% 7.4% 3.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Zachary Schippe 4.7% 4.2% 5.8% 6.6% 7.5% 10.1% 10.6% 13.8% 11.7% 13.1% 7.9% 3.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Conor Cashel 11.0% 11.2% 12.2% 9.1% 11.6% 12.4% 11.9% 8.4% 7.0% 3.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Kelly Rousmaniere 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 2.6% 2.8% 4.2% 5.5% 11.2% 18.8% 22.4% 25.2% 0.0%
Alden Sonnenfeldt 9.1% 10.2% 9.8% 12.1% 10.3% 11.9% 11.0% 10.4% 8.7% 4.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Murphy 3.6% 3.7% 3.1% 4.8% 6.1% 6.7% 9.5% 12.0% 13.3% 14.8% 11.8% 7.3% 3.3% 0.0%
Kelly Rousmaniere 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 2.6% 2.8% 4.2% 5.5% 11.2% 18.8% 22.4% 25.2% 0.0%
Craig Williams 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 1.4% 2.4% 2.7% 3.6% 7.1% 8.1% 16.4% 22.5% 33.2% 0.0%
Andrew Green 1.4% 1.5% 2.2% 3.4% 3.1% 4.7% 7.2% 7.2% 11.1% 15.8% 17.5% 15.3% 9.6% 0.0%
Jarrett Scherrer 0.7% 0.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.9% 1.6% 2.8% 4.6% 7.2% 11.5% 15.0% 24.1% 27.2% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.