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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.53vs Predicted
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2Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+2.94vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.77+0.37vs Predicted
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4University of Rochester-0.05+5.93vs Predicted
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6Ocean County College0.69+2.13vs Predicted
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7Villanova University1.24-0.21vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University0.43+0.67vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.43-5.00vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.27-3.18vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.07-3.78vs Predicted
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12Princeton University1.10-5.04vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo0.10-3.27vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-1.19-2.10vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.05-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.3%1st Place
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4.94Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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3.37Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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9.93University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
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8.13Ocean County College0.690.0%1st Place
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6.79Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.67Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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4.0Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.82Cornell University1.270.0%1st Place
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7.22Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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6.96Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
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9.73University of Buffalo0.100.0%1st Place
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11.9Penn State University-1.190.0%1st Place
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9.93University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 34.1% | 24.0% | 19.5% | 11.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 18.9% | 21.4% | 18.0% | 15.2% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 16.5% | 23.8% | 14.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Donnelly | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 15.6% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Celone | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Harmen Rockler | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 17.1% | 14.1% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 14.2% | 15.6% | 15.1% | 17.1% | 13.9% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Reppucci | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 14.3% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Rosenbaum | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 22.5% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Kenyon | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 14.4% | 62.6% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 16.5% | 23.8% | 14.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.