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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.46vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+1.34vs Predicted
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3Villanova University1.24+3.85vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.27+2.75vs Predicted
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5Ocean County College0.69+3.09vs Predicted
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6University of Rochester-0.05+3.94vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-2.12vs Predicted
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8Princeton University1.10-0.87vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo0.10-0.40vs Predicted
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11Columbia University2.43-6.98vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University0.43-3.31vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester-0.05-3.06vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-1.19-2.14vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.07-7.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.4%1st Place
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3.34Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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6.85Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
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6.75Cornell University1.270.0%1st Place
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8.09Ocean County College0.690.0%1st Place
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9.94University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
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4.88Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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7.13Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
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9.6University of Buffalo0.100.0%1st Place
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4.02Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.69Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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9.94University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
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11.86Penn State University-1.190.0%1st Place
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7.37Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 35.6% | 23.1% | 18.9% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 19.3% | 23.3% | 16.1% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Celone | 3.4% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Reppucci | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Donnelly | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 0.8% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 17.2% | 25.2% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 10.0% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Rosenbaum | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 15.7% | 21.6% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 14.4% | 16.4% | 16.1% | 15.0% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harmen Rockler | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 12.8% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 0.8% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 17.2% | 25.2% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Kenyon | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 14.6% | 61.8% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.