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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+2.43vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+0.49vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.07+4.40vs Predicted
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4Villanova University1.59+2.08vs Predicted
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5Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-0.04vs Predicted
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7Ocean County College0.69+1.17vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.27-1.29vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester-0.05+0.87vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University0.43-1.07vs Predicted
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11Columbia University2.43-6.92vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo0.10-2.52vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.10-5.58vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester-0.05-4.13vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-1.19-3.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.43Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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2.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.3%1st Place
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7.4Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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6.08Villanova University1.590.1%1st Place
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4.96Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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8.17Ocean County College0.690.0%1st Place
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6.71Cornell University1.270.0%1st Place
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9.87University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
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8.93Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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4.08Columbia University2.430.2%1st Place
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9.48University of Buffalo0.100.0%1st Place
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7.42Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
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9.87University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
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11.97Penn State University-1.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Howes | 20.1% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 15.9% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 33.5% | 26.8% | 17.1% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 9.1% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Donnelly | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Reppucci | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 16.8% | 25.6% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| Harmen Rockler | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 15.1% | 15.1% | 16.7% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Rosenbaum | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 16.8% | 17.4% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 16.8% | 25.6% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Kenyon | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 14.7% | 64.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.