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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.57vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+4.50vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.69+7.08vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.84vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.22-0.34vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.57vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.18+1.07vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.90+1.05vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-2.58vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.90-0.66vs Predicted
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11Drexel University1.35+0.22vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.35-4.25vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-2.86vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.08-2.26vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.03+0.11vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.70-2.79vs Predicted
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17Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30-1.29vs Predicted
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18Hampton University-0.13-2.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.57U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.5Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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10.08Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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5.84University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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4.66Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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5.43St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.07Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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9.05Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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9.34George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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11.22Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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7.75SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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10.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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11.74Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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15.11Syracuse University-0.030.0%1st Place
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13.21Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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15.71Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.0%1st Place
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15.15Hampton University-0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 11.3% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.3% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 17.5% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.7% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 14.4% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 23.2% | 23.5% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 7.4% |
| Cole Bender | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 11.4% | 22.8% | 37.1% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 18.1% | 22.8% | 25.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.