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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.35+6.73vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.49vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+1.85vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.50vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.18+3.01vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.55vs Predicted
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7Drexel University1.35+4.09vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.83-2.20vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.90+0.03vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.70+3.31vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.69-0.95vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.69-5.38vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-2.82vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.08-2.29vs Predicted
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15Hampton University-0.13+0.29vs Predicted
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16Syracuse University-0.03-0.92vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.90-7.75vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30-2.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.73SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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5.49U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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4.85Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.01Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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5.45St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.09Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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5.8University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.03George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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13.31Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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10.05Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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6.62Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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10.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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11.71Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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15.29Hampton University-0.130.0%1st Place
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15.08Syracuse University-0.030.0%1st Place
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9.25Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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15.55Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.9% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.7% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.2% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 1.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.5% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 15.7% | 6.8% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Bridget Green | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 21.2% | 28.3% |
| Alexa Whitman | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 21.6% | 24.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Cole Bender | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 21.4% | 34.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.