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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.54vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+1.36vs Predicted
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3Villanova University1.59+3.12vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+1.05vs Predicted
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5Syracuse University0.43+3.77vs Predicted
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6Princeton University1.10+1.21vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester-0.05+2.85vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.07-0.68vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.43-4.87vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College0.69-2.74vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo0.10-2.47vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.27-6.07vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-1.19-2.05vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.05-5.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.3%1st Place
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3.36Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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6.12Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
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5.05Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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8.77Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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7.21Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
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9.85University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
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7.32Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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4.13Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.26Ocean County College0.690.0%1st Place
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9.53University of Buffalo0.100.0%1st Place
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6.93Cornell University1.270.0%1st Place
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11.95Penn State University-1.190.0%1st Place
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9.85University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 33.8% | 24.5% | 18.4% | 11.1% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 20.3% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 15.0% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 8.9% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Harmen Rockler | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 15.9% | 25.0% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 13.5% | 16.5% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Donnelly | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Rosenbaum | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 17.5% | 19.6% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Reppucci | 3.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Kenyon | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 7.7% | 16.5% | 62.6% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 15.9% | 25.0% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.