← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania2.83+5.05vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.69+4.45vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.50vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University3.22+0.65vs Predicted
-
5Old Dominion University2.18+3.02vs Predicted
-
6Webb Institute1.69+3.95vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.49vs Predicted
-
8Drexel University1.35+2.95vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.29vs Predicted
-
10George Washington University1.90-0.66vs Predicted
-
11Fordham University1.90-1.76vs Predicted
-
12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-6.34vs Predicted
-
13Hampton University-0.13+2.18vs Predicted
-
14Syracuse University-0.03+0.88vs Predicted
-
15Princeton University0.70-1.87vs Predicted
-
16SUNY Maritime College2.35-8.45vs Predicted
-
17Christopher Newport University1.08-4.88vs Predicted
-
18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30-2.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.05University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
-
6.45Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
-
5.5U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
4.65Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
-
8.02Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
-
9.95Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
-
6.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
-
10.95Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
-
10.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
-
9.34George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
-
9.24Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
-
5.66St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
15.18Hampton University-0.130.0%1st Place
-
14.88Syracuse University-0.030.0%1st Place
-
13.13Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
-
7.55SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
-
12.12Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
-
15.53Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bruce | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.1% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 15.9% | 15.8% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 1.0% |
| Lars Osell | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 22.4% | 29.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 21.5% | 23.7% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 16.2% | 11.5% | 7.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Joshua Bendura | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 3.3% |
| Cole Bender | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 15.6% | 21.0% | 34.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.