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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.90+8.43vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.69+8.30vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.76vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.45vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.22-0.16vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.68vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+3.46vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.35-0.46vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.69-2.53vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.08+2.28vs Predicted
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11Drexel University1.35+0.31vs Predicted
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12Hampton University-0.13+3.48vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.18-4.89vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.83-8.17vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.51-7.86vs Predicted
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16Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30-0.26vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University-0.03-1.87vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.70-4.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.43George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.3Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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5.76St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.45U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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4.84Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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10.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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7.54SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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6.47Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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12.28Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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11.31Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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15.48Hampton University-0.130.0%1st Place
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8.11Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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5.83University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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7.14Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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15.74Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.0%1st Place
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15.13Syracuse University-0.030.0%1st Place
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13.06Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wood | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Payne Donaldson | 1.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 12.6% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 15.0% | 14.7% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 8.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 2.7% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 15.1% | 23.7% | 28.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.6% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Cole Bender | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 14.0% | 20.6% | 36.8% |
| Alexa Whitman | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 17.8% | 23.7% | 22.9% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 16.2% | 11.2% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.