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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.69+5.67vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.60vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.65vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+6.28vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.22-0.15vs Predicted
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6Drexel University1.35+5.25vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.31vs Predicted
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8Princeton University0.70+5.16vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.83-3.04vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.18-1.49vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.90-1.62vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.51-4.60vs Predicted
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13Hampton University-0.13+2.20vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.57vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.08-2.95vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.69-5.86vs Predicted
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17Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30-1.20vs Predicted
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18Syracuse University-0.03-3.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.67Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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5.6U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.65St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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4.85Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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11.25Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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6.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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13.16Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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5.96University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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8.51Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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9.38George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.4Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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15.2Hampton University-0.130.0%1st Place
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7.43SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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12.05Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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10.14Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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15.8Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.0%1st Place
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14.97Syracuse University-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 16.4% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Will Murray | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 14.8% | 16.4% | 13.6% | 6.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.9% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 15.9% | 20.3% | 28.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 6.8% | 3.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Cole Bender | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 13.3% | 22.4% | 37.2% |
| Alexa Whitman | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 18.3% | 23.2% | 21.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.