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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.69+5.57vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.22+2.82vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.83+2.99vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.90+4.95vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.37vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.18+2.11vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.90+2.08vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.67vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.35-1.58vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-3.28vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-0.61vs Predicted
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12Drexel University1.35-0.69vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.69-3.29vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.08-2.36vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.70-1.96vs Predicted
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16Syracuse University-0.03-0.97vs Predicted
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17Hampton University-0.13-1.77vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.80-1.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.57Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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4.82Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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5.99University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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8.95Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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5.37U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.11Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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9.08George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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5.33St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.42SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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6.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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10.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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11.31Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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9.71Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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11.64Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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13.04Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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15.03Syracuse University-0.030.0%1st Place
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15.23Hampton University-0.130.0%1st Place
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16.29Rochester Institute of Technology-0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.4% | 13.9% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 12.9% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.2% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 5.8% | 1.8% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 16.5% | 11.6% | 4.3% |
| Alexa Whitman | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 11.8% | 17.4% | 24.7% | 19.3% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 17.2% | 24.7% | 23.3% |
| Ashley Franklin | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 10.5% | 22.4% | 48.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.