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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.22+3.88vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+4.50vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.52vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.78vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.69+4.77vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+4.30vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.55vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.35-0.56vs Predicted
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9Drexel University1.35+2.03vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.08+2.10vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.99-5.51vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.90-2.64vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.70-0.05vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.90-5.25vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.03-0.04vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.18-7.84vs Predicted
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17Hampton University-0.13-1.75vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.80-1.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.88Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.5Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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5.52St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.78University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.77Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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10.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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6.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.44SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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11.03Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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12.1Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.49U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.36George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.95Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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8.75Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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14.96Syracuse University-0.030.0%1st Place
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8.16Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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15.25Hampton University-0.130.0%1st Place
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16.28Rochester Institute of Technology-0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 14.2% | 14.9% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.9% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Lars Osell | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Will Murray | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Joshua Bendura | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 2.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 12.4% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 17.3% | 10.2% | 5.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 18.3% | 22.7% | 19.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 16.3% | 26.6% | 23.1% |
| Ashley Franklin | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 10.5% | 22.1% | 48.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.