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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.40vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.26vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+1.61vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.35+3.17vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.69+1.10vs Predicted
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6Princeton University0.70+6.87vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.90+1.81vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.69+1.57vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.00vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.90-0.92vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.24+0.28vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-5.43vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-0.03+1.74vs Predicted
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14Hampton University-0.13+0.92vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.08-3.34vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.35-5.14vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.83-11.16vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.80-1.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.26U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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4.61Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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7.17SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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6.1Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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12.87Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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8.81Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.57Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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10.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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9.08George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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11.28Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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6.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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14.74Syracuse University-0.030.0%1st Place
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14.92Hampton University-0.130.0%1st Place
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11.66Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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10.86Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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5.84University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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16.27Rochester Institute of Technology-0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.9% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.6% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 14.9% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 5.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Lars Osell | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| Will Murray | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 16.3% | 25.0% | 18.0% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 16.7% | 23.2% | 20.7% |
| Joshua Bendura | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 1.5% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Jordan Bruce | 12.2% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ashley Franklin | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 11.0% | 19.5% | 50.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.