← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.43vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.69+4.28vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University3.22+1.65vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.66vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University1.90+3.79vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.29vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University1.90+1.86vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College2.35-0.81vs Predicted
-
9Princeton University0.70+3.91vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University1.24+1.32vs Predicted
-
11Drexel University1.35-0.18vs Predicted
-
12Christopher Newport University1.08+0.03vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Naval Academy2.99-7.86vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-4.27vs Predicted
-
15Hampton University-0.13+0.04vs Predicted
-
16Syracuse University-0.03-1.15vs Predicted
-
17Webb Institute1.69-7.21vs Predicted
-
18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.80-1.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.43St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
6.28Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
-
4.65Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
-
5.66University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
-
8.79George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
-
6.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
-
8.86Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
-
7.19SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
-
12.91Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
-
11.32Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
-
10.82Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
-
12.03Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
-
5.14U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
9.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
-
15.04Hampton University-0.130.0%1st Place
-
14.85Syracuse University-0.030.0%1st Place
-
9.79Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
-
16.21Rochester Institute of Technology-0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 11.4% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.7% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 14.6% | 11.4% | 4.7% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 5.1% | 1.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Joshua Bendura | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 2.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.8% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 16.4% | 23.4% | 21.4% |
| Alexa Whitman | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 16.3% | 22.7% | 19.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Ashley Franklin | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 21.0% | 48.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.