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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.90+7.77vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.25vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+3.28vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.46vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.90+3.77vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.22-1.16vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.35+0.42vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.83-2.18vs Predicted
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9Rochester Institute of Technology-0.80+6.86vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-3.62vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-0.75vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.18-4.05vs Predicted
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13Drexel University1.35-2.07vs Predicted
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14Hampton University-0.13+0.71vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.08-3.32vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.70-3.15vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.69-7.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.77George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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5.25U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.28Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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5.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.77Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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4.84Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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7.42SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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5.82University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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15.86Rochester Institute of Technology-0.800.0%1st Place
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6.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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10.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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7.95Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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10.93Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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14.71Hampton University-0.130.0%1st Place
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11.68Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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12.85Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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9.77Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wood | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 13.0% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.6% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.1% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.2% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ashley Franklin | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 20.3% | 58.5% |
| Will Murray | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 0.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 1.8% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 30.1% | 28.1% |
| Joshua Bendura | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 17.4% | 10.4% | 2.9% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 19.5% | 18.1% | 6.6% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.