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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.22+3.46vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.69+7.65vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.29vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.84vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+4.93vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.53vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.90+2.01vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.69-1.82vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.18-0.84vs Predicted
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10Drexel University1.35+0.80vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-4.40vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.70+0.76vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.35-5.44vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.08-2.20vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.80+0.72vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.90-6.95vs Predicted
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17Hampton University-0.13-2.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.46Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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9.65Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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5.29U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.84University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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5.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.01George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.18Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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8.16Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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10.8Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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6.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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12.76Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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7.56SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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11.8Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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15.72Rochester Institute of Technology-0.800.0%1st Place
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9.05Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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14.72Hampton University-0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 17.6% | 16.1% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 12.8% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 0.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.1% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Bridget Green | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 1.4% |
| Will Murray | 9.1% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 20.3% | 18.1% | 7.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bendura | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 18.0% | 11.3% | 2.3% |
| Ashley Franklin | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 7.8% | 18.1% | 59.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 31.1% | 28.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.