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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.46vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+1.30vs Predicted
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3Villanova University1.21+3.84vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+0.91vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.27+0.53vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.07+0.06vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester-0.96+3.17vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.43-5.09vs Predicted
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10Princeton University1.10-2.88vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo0.10-1.61vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.69-4.11vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University0.43-4.24vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-1.19-2.32vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.96-3.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.4%1st Place
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3.3Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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6.84Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
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4.91Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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6.53Cornell University1.270.0%1st Place
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7.06Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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11.17University of Rochester-0.960.0%1st Place
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3.91Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.12Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
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9.39University of Buffalo0.100.0%1st Place
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7.89Ocean County College0.690.0%1st Place
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8.76Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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11.68Penn State University-1.190.0%1st Place
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11.17University of Rochester-0.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 35.7% | 24.3% | 18.5% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 20.9% | 20.0% | 19.7% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barnhill | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 9.4% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 16.5% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Reppucci | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Paul Sozio | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 30.3% | 34.3% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 14.2% | 17.1% | 16.0% | 14.3% | 15.6% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 2.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Rosenbaum | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 20.2% | 17.1% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Donnelly | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 14.8% | 10.7% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Harmen Rockler | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 15.9% | 19.5% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Kenyon | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 10.0% | 23.5% | 49.5% | 0.0% |
| Paul Sozio | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 30.3% | 34.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.