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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+2.32vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+0.44vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.27+3.67vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology2.02+0.90vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.07+2.05vs Predicted
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6University of Buffalo0.10+3.33vs Predicted
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7Villanova University1.21-0.38vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester-0.96+2.28vs Predicted
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10Princeton University1.10-2.92vs Predicted
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11Columbia University2.43-7.01vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.69-4.12vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-1.19-1.35vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University0.43-5.22vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-0.96-3.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.32Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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2.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.3%1st Place
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6.67Cornell University1.270.0%1st Place
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4.9Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.1%1st Place
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7.05Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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9.33University of Buffalo0.100.0%1st Place
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6.62Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Rochester-0.960.0%1st Place
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7.08Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
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3.99Columbia University2.430.2%1st Place
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7.88Ocean County College0.690.0%1st Place
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11.65Penn State University-1.190.0%1st Place
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8.78Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Rochester-0.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Howes | 20.2% | 20.3% | 18.2% | 15.3% | 12.6% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 34.9% | 27.3% | 16.1% | 10.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Reppucci | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 8.7% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Rosenbaum | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 20.3% | 17.4% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barnhill | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Paul Sozio | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 29.1% | 37.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 16.1% | 14.6% | 17.0% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Donnelly | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Kenyon | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 6.2% | 10.7% | 22.2% | 49.3% | 0.0% |
| Harmen Rockler | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 19.1% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Sozio | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 29.1% | 37.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.