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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.22vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.05+5.62vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.93+5.11vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.34+2.70vs Predicted
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5Princeton University1.08+6.16vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.55+0.07vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+0.30vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+3.08vs Predicted
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9Hampton University1.77-0.07vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.35-3.50vs Predicted
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11Drexel University0.32+2.73vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.79-6.81vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.76-0.46vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-4.59vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology1.06-3.59vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.77-7.19vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.85-4.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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7.62University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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8.11Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.7Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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11.16Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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6.07U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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7.3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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11.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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8.93Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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6.5Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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13.73Drexel University0.320.0%1st Place
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5.19Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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12.54SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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9.41St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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11.41Rochester Institute of Technology1.060.0%1st Place
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8.81Webb Institute1.770.0%1st Place
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12.21Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Honig | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| Winborne Majette | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Asher Green | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% |
| Jack Welburn | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 9.2% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Iain Shand | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 16.1% | 33.2% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 14.4% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 14.9% | 17.1% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 1.1% |
| Cameron Turner | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 9.3% |
| Calvin Schmid | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 15.8% | 14.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.