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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.55+4.75vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.35+4.49vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+4.28vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+2.51vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.79+0.05vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.34+0.78vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.76+5.41vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+1.16vs Predicted
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9Drexel University0.32+4.91vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.05-2.46vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.08+0.39vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-0.67vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.93-4.72vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.77-5.12vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.85-2.93vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.77-7.25vs Predicted
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17Rochester Institute of Technology1.06-5.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.75U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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6.49Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.28St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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6.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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5.05Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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6.78Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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12.41SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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9.16St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.1%1st Place
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13.91Drexel University0.320.0%1st Place
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7.54University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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11.39Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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11.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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8.28Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.88Webb Institute1.770.0%1st Place
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12.07Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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8.75Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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11.43Rochester Institute of Technology1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 11.7% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Madison Bashaw | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 14.7% | 15.4% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Winborne Majette | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 15.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Iain Shand | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 15.6% | 34.9% |
| Benjamin Honig | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Asher Green | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 9.8% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Calvin Schmid | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 14.2% |
| Valerio Palamara | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Cameron Turner | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.