Race 5A

2023-mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Nithya Balachander 8.8% 7.0% 7.8% 8.3% 8.2% 6.3% 7.6% 6.9% 6.9% 7.9% 7.0% 6.3% 5.0% 4.1% 1.9%
Jake Weinstein 10.1% 13.7% 11.5% 9.4% 8.2% 10.4% 7.1% 5.8% 6.3% 5.7% 4.4% 3.2% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2%
Charlie Herrick 12.2% 10.7% 11.1% 8.2% 10.2% 9.2% 7.1% 7.7% 6.6% 6.3% 4.2% 3.1% 2.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Joe Serpa 9.6% 10.4% 9.5% 10.5% 6.5% 7.1% 9.2% 8.2% 6.0% 6.6% 5.6% 4.2% 3.8% 2.3% 0.5%
Eric Hoyerman 3.8% 3.3% 4.5% 3.5% 5.2% 3.8% 5.4% 5.6% 5.6% 6.0% 7.2% 9.1% 12.4% 13.7% 10.9%
Christian Ehrnrooth 8.4% 9.5% 7.5% 8.7% 8.5% 8.3% 9.7% 8.2% 7.4% 6.1% 5.2% 6.1% 2.9% 2.8% 0.7%
Dougie Cowan 5.4% 4.8% 3.8% 5.2% 4.0% 6.3% 7.0% 6.5% 7.1% 7.6% 8.9% 10.3% 8.3% 9.4% 5.4%
Rachel Bartel 6.2% 5.4% 6.4% 7.1% 5.7% 7.0% 7.1% 5.8% 8.2% 8.5% 7.7% 8.3% 7.3% 6.0% 3.3%
Andrew Michels 5.5% 4.5% 6.7% 5.7% 7.7% 6.4% 7.2% 7.4% 8.4% 8.0% 8.2% 7.0% 8.2% 6.3% 2.8%
Joseph Gallagher 5.6% 6.0% 5.5% 7.3% 6.9% 8.2% 6.3% 8.4% 7.1% 8.1% 7.5% 6.6% 7.3% 6.4% 2.8%
Domenico Sacchetti 1.2% 1.6% 1.0% 1.2% 2.0% 1.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.5% 4.9% 6.0% 6.6% 15.4% 47.9%
Gavin Dempsey 9.7% 8.4% 10.9% 9.6% 8.8% 7.7% 7.9% 9.1% 6.6% 5.9% 5.7% 4.0% 3.6% 1.8% 0.3%
Mason Shaw 2.9% 3.7% 1.8% 5.0% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 5.5% 6.3% 5.4% 7.3% 8.7% 11.7% 15.7% 14.9%
Arden Carleton 4.7% 5.0% 5.5% 5.4% 6.1% 6.7% 6.5% 5.9% 7.2% 8.0% 8.1% 8.0% 9.9% 8.5% 4.5%
Odey Hariri 5.9% 6.0% 6.5% 4.9% 8.1% 7.2% 5.9% 6.4% 7.4% 7.4% 8.1% 9.1% 7.6% 5.7% 3.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.