Race 1B

2023-mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Abe Weston 19.7% 19.1% 14.9% 11.2% 9.2% 7.9% 6.3% 4.7% 3.6% 1.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Seamus Hendrickson 15.5% 13.2% 14.7% 10.4% 11.7% 10.3% 8.4% 6.2% 3.9% 2.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Greg Bittle 10.4% 9.9% 10.0% 10.5% 10.3% 9.6% 8.8% 9.1% 8.6% 6.2% 3.8% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Justin Skene 8.8% 11.5% 11.3% 10.0% 9.8% 11.5% 9.0% 7.4% 7.5% 6.2% 5.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Luciana Solorzano 5.8% 7.0% 7.9% 8.0% 8.6% 9.1% 10.5% 8.1% 10.3% 10.3% 8.3% 4.6% 1.0% 0.5%
Bryce Lesinski 5.4% 4.0% 5.2% 6.0% 5.6% 8.2% 8.4% 9.8% 9.3% 11.7% 11.3% 10.9% 3.7% 0.5%
Brittany Shabino 5.9% 6.7% 6.0% 6.5% 7.5% 7.9% 8.1% 9.6% 10.0% 9.8% 13.2% 6.0% 2.5% 0.3%
Grace Bray 7.7% 7.6% 8.6% 8.3% 9.1% 7.8% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9% 8.7% 8.2% 4.9% 1.6% 0.0%
Lucas Rodenroth 6.9% 5.5% 7.1% 8.3% 8.3% 8.7% 9.8% 10.8% 10.5% 10.1% 7.3% 4.8% 1.9% 0.0%
Lucas Koenig 7.2% 8.4% 7.0% 11.2% 10.2% 7.5% 9.9% 10.5% 8.6% 9.0% 7.0% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Jack Miller 4.7% 5.0% 4.6% 7.2% 6.7% 7.3% 7.4% 9.9% 10.5% 11.9% 12.5% 8.5% 3.2% 0.6%
Matthew Scanlon 0.9% 1.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 2.9% 1.8% 1.8% 5.3% 5.9% 11.0% 29.7% 23.6% 11.3%
Quinn Schwarz 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.5% 1.4% 2.4% 4.6% 11.8% 29.7% 43.8%
Chris Li 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1% 1.5% 1.6% 3.1% 4.4% 11.4% 31.0% 42.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.