Race 3B

2023-mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Brittany Shabino 5.2% 4.4% 6.4% 7.4% 7.3% 7.5% 8.2% 10.0% 11.3% 9.4% 10.7% 8.5% 3.2% 0.5%
Justin Skene 11.7% 11.1% 9.9% 10.1% 11.0% 9.2% 10.3% 9.3% 7.3% 4.5% 3.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Luciana Solorzano 7.5% 7.7% 7.2% 8.9% 6.4% 9.6% 8.1% 10.2% 11.0% 9.6% 7.5% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4%
Lucas Rodenroth 5.8% 8.4% 7.0% 9.1% 7.8% 7.1% 9.5% 9.6% 8.8% 10.8% 10.0% 4.3% 1.8% 0.0%
Abe Weston 17.8% 17.9% 15.7% 10.8% 11.4% 9.1% 6.3% 4.5% 3.6% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Grace Bray 6.9% 6.7% 7.3% 8.2% 8.2% 10.0% 9.6% 9.5% 8.2% 10.0% 8.1% 5.9% 1.3% 0.1%
Greg Bittle 11.2% 11.6% 10.7% 10.6% 11.0% 8.1% 8.9% 8.5% 8.1% 5.6% 3.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Bryce Lesinski 5.9% 5.1% 5.0% 6.3% 6.3% 7.9% 9.0% 6.6% 9.5% 11.5% 13.3% 10.0% 3.1% 0.5%
Lucas Koenig 8.0% 7.1% 9.0% 8.4% 9.0% 9.6% 9.3% 10.3% 10.2% 8.7% 6.2% 3.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Seamus Hendrickson 12.6% 13.7% 13.7% 12.0% 11.2% 9.5% 8.8% 7.0% 5.6% 3.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Jack Miller 5.1% 4.4% 5.4% 5.8% 6.9% 8.6% 7.8% 8.4% 9.9% 12.6% 13.4% 7.7% 3.5% 0.5%
Matthew Scanlon 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% 3.2% 2.8% 7.4% 11.8% 29.2% 22.8% 11.2%
Quinn Schwarz 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 2.6% 3.6% 12.3% 29.5% 43.8%
Chris Li 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.2% 0.6% 1.0% 1.2% 2.0% 2.1% 5.0% 10.7% 31.7% 42.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.