Race 4B

2023-mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Abe Weston 19.5% 19.6% 13.1% 13.1% 9.2% 8.1% 6.2% 4.9% 3.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Justin Skene 11.3% 12.4% 10.1% 10.1% 10.5% 10.4% 9.1% 10.3% 6.3% 4.2% 3.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Brittany Shabino 5.6% 5.1% 6.1% 7.2% 6.8% 6.2% 7.1% 10.3% 11.7% 10.7% 13.3% 7.6% 2.0% 0.3%
Greg Bittle 8.6% 10.4% 10.9% 11.1% 9.4% 10.7% 8.9% 8.2% 8.2% 7.3% 4.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0%
Luciana Solorzano 6.0% 6.3% 7.9% 8.9% 9.0% 8.1% 10.4% 9.5% 8.7% 9.9% 9.8% 4.3% 1.1% 0.1%
Jack Miller 4.9% 4.3% 4.9% 6.9% 6.4% 6.9% 8.8% 9.0% 11.2% 10.9% 13.3% 8.6% 3.9% 0.0%
Seamus Hendrickson 16.1% 13.5% 13.1% 11.2% 11.4% 9.7% 8.5% 6.9% 3.9% 3.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Lucas Rodenroth 7.1% 7.2% 9.5% 5.6% 9.5% 8.4% 8.5% 8.7% 10.5% 9.0% 9.0% 5.6% 1.2% 0.2%
Lucas Koenig 8.4% 6.4% 7.6% 9.1% 9.5% 11.0% 10.2% 9.4% 8.2% 9.5% 6.0% 4.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Matthew Scanlon 1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.2% 1.0% 1.7% 1.8% 3.4% 4.4% 6.4% 10.5% 28.7% 23.4% 13.0%
Grace Bray 6.6% 6.3% 8.3% 9.2% 8.5% 9.6% 10.0% 7.6% 9.3% 11.3% 7.6% 4.6% 1.0% 0.1%
Quinn Schwarz 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 1.6% 1.5% 5.6% 10.5% 33.0% 42.2%
Bryce Lesinski 4.4% 5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 7.1% 7.3% 8.3% 9.4% 10.5% 11.6% 11.5% 9.1% 2.6% 0.6%
Chris Li 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 1.5% 2.3% 2.4% 4.2% 12.4% 29.9% 43.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.