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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+6.06vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.68+5.44vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.43+5.07vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.71+3.34vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.65+7.54vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.59+1.61vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05-0.18vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.44+0.47vs Predicted
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9Hampton University0.72+3.27vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.72+1.05vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.98-4.29vs Predicted
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12Drexel University0.47-0.06vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.27-0.53vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.42-9.14vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.20-1.45vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.34-2.29vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.57-12.11vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-3.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.6%1st Place
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7.44Cornell University1.687.6%1st Place
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8.07Webb Institute1.436.4%1st Place
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7.34University of Pennsylvania1.717.0%1st Place
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12.54Christopher Newport University0.651.4%1st Place
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7.61Old Dominion University1.596.7%1st Place
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6.82St. Mary's College of Maryland2.059.0%1st Place
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8.47George Washington University1.444.3%1st Place
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12.27Hampton University0.721.9%1st Place
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11.05SUNY Maritime College0.722.8%1st Place
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6.71Fordham University1.988.4%1st Place
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11.94Drexel University0.471.8%1st Place
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12.47Princeton University0.271.8%1st Place
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4.86Georgetown University2.4215.0%1st Place
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13.55Washington College0.201.0%1st Place
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13.71University of Virginia-0.340.9%1st Place
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4.89U. S. Naval Academy2.5715.3%1st Place
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14.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Honig | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% |
| Diogo Silva | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Anderson | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 7.9% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 4.4% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Iain Shand | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 6.4% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 9.2% |
| Enzo Menditto | 15.0% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 17.4% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 15.8% | 19.3% |
| Henry Allgeier | 15.3% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 24.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.