Race 5B

2023-mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Greg Bittle 10.1% 10.9% 11.2% 10.9% 11.0% 10.9% 9.4% 8.6% 6.0% 6.0% 3.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Abe Weston 21.2% 17.6% 15.8% 13.0% 10.4% 8.9% 4.9% 3.5% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Lucas Rodenroth 7.7% 6.9% 7.6% 7.8% 8.8% 8.2% 10.3% 12.1% 12.0% 8.3% 6.8% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Bryce Lesinski 3.8% 5.3% 5.8% 6.6% 6.7% 8.7% 9.4% 10.8% 11.7% 13.0% 11.1% 5.2% 1.6% 0.3%
Nicholas Chesemore 8.6% 10.2% 8.9% 11.8% 10.9% 9.9% 10.1% 9.5% 8.1% 7.6% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Justin Skene 9.2% 10.0% 10.6% 11.2% 11.5% 10.6% 10.0% 7.6% 8.5% 4.7% 4.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Seamus Hendrickson 15.6% 15.1% 14.4% 10.9% 10.4% 9.5% 10.2% 4.9% 4.5% 2.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Lucas Koenig 8.8% 9.1% 9.2% 9.1% 8.6% 9.3% 10.7% 10.5% 9.1% 8.6% 4.4% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Luciana Solorzano 7.0% 6.8% 6.8% 8.0% 9.7% 10.5% 9.7% 12.2% 11.1% 8.8% 5.8% 2.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Joey Skerbeck 1.3% 0.6% 1.2% 1.8% 0.8% 1.4% 1.8% 2.6% 4.3% 8.7% 15.2% 22.9% 23.3% 14.1%
Brittany Shabino 5.1% 5.2% 5.7% 6.3% 7.8% 8.9% 8.5% 11.0% 11.5% 13.8% 9.3% 5.3% 1.3% 0.3%
Matthew Scanlon 0.6% 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.4% 2.9% 6.3% 10.0% 18.6% 23.8% 17.2% 9.6%
Chris Li 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 1.4% 1.6% 2.7% 3.1% 7.3% 15.7% 25.4% 39.5%
Quinn Schwarz 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 2.2% 1.9% 3.6% 8.8% 14.4% 28.6% 35.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.