Race 6B

2023-mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Nicholas Chesemore 9.6% 11.1% 11.1% 10.8% 11.4% 9.3% 9.6% 8.2% 7.1% 7.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Justin Skene 11.8% 12.0% 9.6% 12.2% 10.9% 9.4% 10.4% 9.0% 7.1% 3.8% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Lucas Koenig 8.7% 9.4% 9.7% 6.9% 8.0% 10.9% 11.2% 10.4% 8.9% 8.8% 4.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1%
Greg Bittle 8.8% 9.9% 12.0% 10.4% 10.3% 11.0% 10.1% 7.8% 9.1% 6.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Abe Weston 17.7% 18.0% 15.8% 13.1% 10.5% 8.4% 5.7% 5.6% 2.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brittany Shabino 5.5% 5.3% 4.2% 7.0% 6.2% 9.2% 9.5% 10.9% 11.9% 11.4% 11.5% 5.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Matthew Scanlon 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 3.3% 3.5% 4.2% 6.7% 8.4% 16.1% 24.0% 17.6% 8.0%
Lucas Rodenroth 8.0% 6.7% 8.8% 7.7% 9.9% 7.4% 10.4% 9.6% 9.4% 11.0% 6.7% 3.5% 0.9% 0.0%
Seamus Hendrickson 13.9% 12.7% 12.6% 12.8% 11.7% 10.5% 7.9% 7.4% 5.1% 3.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryce Lesinski 4.6% 4.9% 5.2% 6.2% 6.7% 9.4% 8.2% 9.3% 12.1% 14.6% 10.8% 6.1% 1.4% 0.5%
Luciana Solorzano 7.9% 6.8% 7.0% 9.0% 9.6% 8.4% 8.3% 11.5% 12.0% 9.3% 7.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Joey Skerbeck 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 1.7% 1.3% 2.3% 2.7% 4.0% 7.4% 15.8% 23.9% 21.9% 15.0%
Quinn Schwarz 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.7% 2.6% 3.1% 7.7% 15.0% 26.7% 38.4%
Chris Li 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 3.1% 8.0% 15.6% 27.2% 37.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.