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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.72+3.42vs Predicted
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2University of Washington0.62+2.70vs Predicted
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3Oregon State University-1.46+7.84vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University-0.57+4.38vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.66-0.31vs Predicted
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7University of Washington0.43-1.61vs Predicted
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8University of Oregon-0.46-0.01vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.08-2.85vs Predicted
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10University of Oregon-1.01-0.52vs Predicted
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11University of Washington0.66-6.28vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University-1.18-1.97vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University-0.50-5.00vs Predicted
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15University of Victoria-1.09-5.26vs Predicted
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16University of Victoria-2.52-2.69vs Predicted
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17Oregon State University-2.47-3.66vs Predicted
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18University of Oregon-3.34-3.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.42University of Washington0.720.2%1st Place
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4.7University of Washington0.620.2%1st Place
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10.84Oregon State University-1.460.0%1st Place
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8.38Western Washington University-0.570.0%1st Place
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4.69University of Washington0.660.1%1st Place
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5.39University of Washington0.430.1%1st Place
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7.99University of Oregon-0.460.1%1st Place
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6.15Western Washington University0.080.1%1st Place
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9.48University of Oregon-1.010.0%1st Place
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4.72University of Washington0.660.1%1st Place
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10.03Western Washington University-1.180.0%1st Place
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8.0Western Washington University-0.500.0%1st Place
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9.74University of Victoria-1.090.0%1st Place
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13.31University of Victoria-2.520.0%1st Place
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13.34Oregon State University-2.470.0%1st Place
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14.8University of Oregon-3.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Nairn | 17.0% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Pamplin | 15.3% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Wheaton | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 8.8% | 2.3% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 12.7% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Miller | 9.5% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Avey | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Gerber | 8.2% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rowan Clinch | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Owen Thomas | 13.0% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Claire Jablonski | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 1.0% |
| Caroline Hurley | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Lowenthal | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| Zoe Folsetter | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 10.5% | 19.5% | 26.6% | 18.6% |
| Aaron Heard | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 19.9% | 27.0% | 19.6% |
| Audrey Lillie | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 20.6% | 56.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.