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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.66+2.27vs Predicted
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3Western Washington University-0.13+2.00vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.42-0.25vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University-3.10+8.12vs Predicted
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6University of Washington-1.04+1.87vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University-0.46-0.93vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University-1.03-0.25vs Predicted
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9University of Washington-0.48-2.87vs Predicted
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10University of Oregon-0.78-3.07vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-2.14+0.10vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University-1.72-2.09vs Predicted
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13University of Oregon-2.33-1.19vs Predicted
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14University of Washington-1.88-3.49vs Predicted
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15University of Oregon-1.52-5.74vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University-0.96-8.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.27University of Washington0.660.3%1st Place
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5.0Western Washington University-0.130.1%1st Place
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3.75University of Washington0.420.2%1st Place
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13.12Western Washington University-3.100.0%1st Place
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7.87University of Washington-1.040.0%1st Place
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6.07Western Washington University-0.460.1%1st Place
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7.75Western Washington University-1.030.1%1st Place
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6.13University of Washington-0.480.1%1st Place
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6.93University of Oregon-0.780.1%1st Place
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11.1Arizona State University-2.140.0%1st Place
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9.91Western Washington University-1.720.0%1st Place
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11.81University of Oregon-2.330.0%1st Place
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10.51University of Washington-1.880.0%1st Place
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9.26University of Oregon-1.520.0%1st Place
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7.51Western Washington University-0.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucien Freemesser | 25.2% | 20.6% | 17.9% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 10.9% | 14.8% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brianne Abbott-Rogge | 19.5% | 16.1% | 16.8% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aliyah Dodge | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 16.5% | 47.5% |
| Kieran Lyons | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| Yuri Berebitsky | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Lindburg | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Jaden Unruh | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Qualtier | 5.5% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 17.3% | 18.7% | 11.6% |
| Peter Hall | 1.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 5.7% |
| Kate Ryan | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 21.1% | 19.6% |
| Ethan Eschbach | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 8.6% |
| Aidan Clark | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 4.3% |
| Ella Barnard | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.