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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.66+2.24vs Predicted
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3Western Washington University-1.03+4.59vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University-0.13+1.07vs Predicted
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5University of Oregon-0.78+2.02vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University-0.96+1.60vs Predicted
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7University of Oregon-1.52+2.30vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-0.48-1.95vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.42-5.19vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-1.04-2.27vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-2.14+0.09vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University-1.72-2.09vs Predicted
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13University of Oregon-2.33-1.20vs Predicted
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14Western Washington University-0.46-7.72vs Predicted
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15University of Washington-1.88-4.62vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University-3.10-2.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.24University of Washington0.660.3%1st Place
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7.59Western Washington University-1.030.0%1st Place
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5.07Western Washington University-0.130.1%1st Place
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7.02University of Oregon-0.780.1%1st Place
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7.6Western Washington University-0.960.1%1st Place
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9.3University of Oregon-1.520.0%1st Place
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6.05University of Washington-0.480.1%1st Place
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3.81University of Washington0.420.2%1st Place
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7.73University of Washington-1.040.0%1st Place
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11.09Arizona State University-2.140.0%1st Place
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9.91Western Washington University-1.720.0%1st Place
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11.8University of Oregon-2.330.0%1st Place
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6.28Western Washington University-0.460.1%1st Place
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10.38University of Washington-1.880.0%1st Place
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13.13Western Washington University-3.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucien Freemesser | 25.8% | 21.2% | 16.9% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Lindburg | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 0.4% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 11.5% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Qualtier | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Ella Barnard | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Aidan Clark | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
| Jaden Unruh | 8.9% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Brianne Abbott-Rogge | 19.3% | 18.4% | 15.8% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Lyons | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 19.2% | 11.9% |
| Peter Hall | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 7.3% |
| Kate Ryan | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 14.9% | 21.8% | 18.8% |
| Yuri Berebitsky | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Eschbach | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 7.7% |
| Aliyah Dodge | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 10.8% | 17.7% | 48.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.