← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University3.53+1.02vs Predicted
-
2University of Washington1.32+4.88vs Predicted
-
3California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+3.48vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+1.62vs Predicted
-
5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+4.92vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Davis-0.32+6.13vs Predicted
-
7University of Hawaii2.38-2.92vs Predicted
-
8University of Southern California1.47-1.70vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Los Angeles1.06-1.32vs Predicted
-
10Western Washington University0.08+0.95vs Predicted
-
11San Diego State University0.17-0.45vs Predicted
-
12Arizona State University0.59-2.71vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Berkeley0.20-2.51vs Predicted
-
14University of California at San Diego-0.97-0.40vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Irvine0.27-4.66vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-6.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.02Stanford University3.530.5%1st Place
-
6.88University of Washington1.320.0%1st Place
-
6.48California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
-
5.62University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.1%1st Place
-
9.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
-
12.13University of California at Davis-0.320.0%1st Place
-
4.08University of Hawaii2.380.1%1st Place
-
6.3University of Southern California1.470.0%1st Place
-
7.68University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
-
10.95Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
-
10.55San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
-
9.29Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
-
10.49University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
-
13.6University of California at San Diego-0.970.0%1st Place
-
10.34University of California at Irvine0.270.0%1st Place
-
9.65University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Sitzmann | 47.9% | 23.9% | 15.8% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stone | 4.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Clay Myers | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 6.8% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 2.8% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 16.4% | 19.7% |
| Erik Anderson | 13.5% | 17.3% | 17.9% | 14.2% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 4.8% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 3.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Gerber | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 7.5% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 7.0% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.1% |
| Wilton Lawton | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 6.7% |
| Andrew Keller | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 15.7% | 41.7% |
| Arin Bekem | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 5.7% |
| George Soliman | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.