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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.53+1.08vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+3.65vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.38+1.08vs Predicted
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4University of Washington1.32+3.20vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.59+4.59vs Predicted
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6California State University Channel Islands0.42+4.47vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy1.43-0.20vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.06-0.02vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.47-2.23vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-0.02vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-0.60vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.08-0.53vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.20-1.86vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.32-1.14vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.97-0.59vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine0.27-5.08vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University0.17-5.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.08Stanford University3.530.4%1st Place
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5.65University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.1%1st Place
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4.08University of Hawaii2.380.1%1st Place
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7.2University of Washington1.320.1%1st Place
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9.59Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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10.47California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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6.8California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
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7.98University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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6.77University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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9.98University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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10.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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11.47Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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11.14University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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12.86University of California at Davis-0.320.0%1st Place
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14.41University of California at San Diego-0.970.0%1st Place
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10.92University of California at Irvine0.270.0%1st Place
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11.2San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Sitzmann | 44.9% | 26.8% | 13.1% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 7.4% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 13.0% | 18.1% | 18.1% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stone | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.0% | 2.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 3.8% |
| Clay Myers | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Luke Harris | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| George Soliman | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.8% |
| Max Case | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 3.4% |
| Nathan Gerber | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 7.3% |
| Wilton Lawton | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 17.5% | 16.8% |
| Andrew Keller | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 14.9% | 42.8% |
| Arin Bekem | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 5.6% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.