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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.53+1.08vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.38+2.06vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+2.79vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.47+2.66vs Predicted
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5University of Washington1.32+2.05vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.59+3.80vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.42+3.27vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy1.43-1.26vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+1.44vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.20+0.92vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles1.06-2.91vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-1.95vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.13+1.82vs Predicted
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14Western Washington University0.08-2.46vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-0.32-2.33vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine0.27-5.17vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University0.17-5.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.08Stanford University3.530.5%1st Place
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4.06University of Hawaii2.380.1%1st Place
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5.79University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.1%1st Place
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6.66University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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7.05University of Washington1.320.0%1st Place
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9.8Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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10.27California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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6.74California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
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10.44Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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10.92University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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8.09University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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10.05University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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14.82University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
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11.54Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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12.67University of California at Davis-0.320.0%1st Place
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10.83University of California at Irvine0.270.0%1st Place
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11.19San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Sitzmann | 45.7% | 25.8% | 13.8% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 13.6% | 17.3% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 12.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 6.5% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 5.8% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stone | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 1.7% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 2.5% |
| Clay Myers | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 3.7% |
| Wilton Lawton | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 4.4% |
| Marianna Shand | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| George Soliman | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 3.1% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 15.4% | 49.7% |
| Nathan Gerber | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 7.0% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 0.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 18.0% | 15.5% |
| Arin Bekem | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 4.6% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.