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📊 Prediction Accuracy
70.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.79+1.64vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.28+1.57vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+3.74vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.48+1.53vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.57+0.22vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.93+1.16vs Predicted
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7University of Washington0.66+0.87vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.19-1.75vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.50+2.35vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University-0.57+1.37vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.65-3.05vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.69-0.27vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University0.32-4.10vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.80+0.29vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.19-0.10vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-0.66-4.28vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-2.78-1.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.64Stanford University2.790.3%1st Place
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3.57University of Hawaii2.280.2%1st Place
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6.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.0%1st Place
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5.53University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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5.22University of California at Los Angeles1.570.1%1st Place
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7.16California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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7.87University of Washington0.660.0%1st Place
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6.25University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.1%1st Place
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11.35University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
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11.37Western Washington University-0.570.0%1st Place
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7.95University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.0%1st Place
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11.73University of California at San Diego-0.690.0%1st Place
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8.9Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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14.29San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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14.9University of California at Davis-2.190.0%1st Place
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11.72University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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15.8California State University Channel Islands-2.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reade Decker | 31.3% | 24.0% | 18.4% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 19.2% | 19.6% | 16.9% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Wells | 9.0% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 7.3% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 15.8% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Colin Olson | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Max Mccreynolds | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 18.1% | 13.1% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 22.0% | 25.5% | 15.6% |
| Juliette Cramer | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 16.0% | 30.1% | 26.9% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 15.0% | 15.4% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 1.2% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 10.2% | 22.3% | 52.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.